2022.11.8 TUE

13:00 - 14:30

Current status and future perspectives on greenhouse gas emission mitigation and impacts

Organizer

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

Co-organizer

NIES
NASA/JPL
CSIRO
AIT

Seminar abstract

The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan has launched a new program for Earth System Model development to support the IPCC Assessment Report cycle (SENTAN project). Also, as proposed in COP26, research institutes and universities in Japan (NIES, JAMSTEC, MRI, Chiba Univ.) have put together first ever “Bulletin of Multi-scale Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Budgets (2022)” under the SII-8 project of the Ministry of the Environment (MOEJ) (https://www.nies.go.jp/sii8_project/index.html) ans submitted it to the Global Stocktake of the UNFCCC. These activities and our independent research have addressed various issues on understanding the historical past budgets of greenhouse gases, separately for the anthropogenic and natural flux components. The observations using in situ and remote sensing techniques (surface stations, aircrafts, ships, satellites) have led to production of high resolution and high accuracy estimation of sources and sink of 3 major man-made greenhouse gases, i.e., carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). However, future climate feedbacks on the carbon-nitrogen cycles of the terrestrial and marine environment are expected to play a much bigger role in the future, which remain largely uncertain in the most recent IPCC AR6. At the COP27, we will discuss emerging science on the controls of greenhouse gases emissions and future challenges in order to achieve the climate mitigation goals, as laid out in the Global Methane Pledge (30% reduction by 2030) and more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions towards net-zero emissions by 2050. The challenges are growing greater due to overall intensification of human activities and changing carbon sequestering efficiency of the natural ecosystems. Scopes for near-future prediction of GHG levels and climate change impact assessments using Earth System Models will be demonstrated. Our historical and future projection of sources and sinks data products will be delivered to the world community for use and evaluation with their country reporting to the UNFCCC. In addition to speakers from Japan, we invite speakers from foreign countries, who would talk about international activities and expectations from research in Japan.
JAMSTEC official website(Click here for online registration)
https://www.jamstec.go.jp/rigc/e/events/cop27-jps/

Speakers

【Local Speakers】

• Michio KAWAMIYA（Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology） Director
• Akihiko ITO（National Institute for Environmental Studies） Head
• Prabir K. PATRA（Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology） Principal Scientist
• Shobhakar DHAKAL（Asian Institute of Technology） Professor and Vice President (Academic Affairs)
• Kevin W. BOWMAN（NASA） Directorate Principal

【Online Speakers】

• Yugo KANAYA（Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology） Director
• Nobuko SAIGUSA（National Institute for Environmental Studies） Director
• Pep CANADELL（CSIRO Science Centre） Chief Officer

Session Summary

The event was moderated by Dr. P. Patra (JAMSTEC) and started with opening remarks by Ms. Takatsuki, MEXT, followed by presentations by Dr. M. Kawamiya (JAMSTEC) and Dr. A. Ito (NIES), who introduced their research on the carbon cycle, conducted under the MEXT’s SENTAN Program and the Ministry of the Environment’s SII-8 Program, respectively. Then, Dr. K. Bowman of NASA JPL, Dr. J. Canadell of CSIRO, Australia, and Dr. S. Dhakal of AIT, Thailand, provided their talks and engaged in active discussions on the observational and numerical studies of the greenhouse gas cycles as well as on mitigation policies.

Questions during Q&A’s include one on what is needed in the current modeling development, to which Dr. Kawamiya responded that the SENTAN Program is going to put emphasis on, among others, non-CO2 greenhouse gases and forest fires. For the panel discussion, Dr. Patra joined the session handing over the moderation to Dr. Kawamiya. Dr. Saigusa (NIES) and Dr. Kanaya (JAMSTEC) also joined the discussion online. Some of the audience were from ESA and they pointed out the importance of international cooperation in upscaling from in-situ observations to global-scale data sets. Drs. Saigusa and Kanaya, who are actively conducting in-situ observations in the fields of carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry, respectively, as well as a JAXA member who were also in attendance, responded to the topic raised. The conversation went on very lively with the audience and panelists, stressing the need for cooperation between observation and modeling, and between JAXA, ESA, and NASA on an international basis.

The total number of on-site participants was nearly 40, and there were roughly 90 other online attendees at any given time, for a total of 124 people connected.

* Abbreviations
AIT: Asian Institute of Technology
CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
ESA: European Space Agency
JAMSTEC: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
JAXA: Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
JPL: Jet Propulsion Laboratory
NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NIES: National Institute for Environmental Studies

JAMSTEC Official Youtube
https://youtu.be/mAQAan14S6A